In the early hours of November 9, 2016, an electrifying hush settled over America. The underdog, the maverick, the seemingly unelectable businessman-cum-reality-TV-star was announced as the 45th President of the United States. Donald J. Trump, despite all odds, had triumphed. The prospect of Trump’s triumph happening again continually baffles, bewilders and, let’s not mince words, terrifies parts of the US population, as well as a significant chunk of the international community. Nevertheless, it is an outcome we cannot shy away from discussing. Therefore, let’s brave these treacherous waters together and analyze the possibility of yet another Trump victory.
Before we delve deeper, let’s separate the man from his persona. Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump provokes reaction not often attributable to a typical politician. His uncensored rhetoric, defiant demeanor, and unapologetic crudity compel attention, fueling both his impassioned supporters and implacable critics. This charisma, whether perceived as charm or malice, plays an influential role in fostering Trump’s political resilience.
An essential attribute of Trump’s magnetism is how he portrays himself as the champion of overlooked rural and working-class Americans. This demographic, generally feeling ignored by policymakers, found in Trump a representative willing to voice their frustrations and resentments. Trump’s success in irrigating and sustaining these often raw sentiments is a strategic advantage that should not be underestimated.
In any scenario predicting Trump’s victory, the former president’s stronghold over the Republican Party plays a crucial role. Analysts are forced to acknowledge that Trumpism continues to hold sway over conservative politics. His grip on the GOP is tenaciously solid with an eye-watering 87% Republican support, as per a February 2021 Quinnipiac University poll. A Trump-propelled candidate or Trump himself could be a formidable force in future elections.
On the flip side, post-presidency, Trump is beleaguered by a myriad of legal battles. From tax evasion allegations to potential criminal charges relating to his efforts to overturn the 2020 Election’s outcome, Trump’s path to the presidency could be obstructed or entirely derailed by legal ramifications. These factors, should they materialize, could play a decisive role in quelling a Trump resurgence, leaving supporters reluctant to back a potentially legally compromised candidate.
Then, there’s the wildcard of Trump’s health. At 75, Trump would be 78 by the time the 2024 election rolls around – the same age President Biden was when he took office. Age is an uncontrollable variable that could potentially impact his return to the political arena.
Finally, polling data while murky and proven unreliable (think of Brexit and the 2016 US Presidential Election) shows waning support for another Trump presidency. A February 2021 Morning Consult/Politico poll indicates that just 54% of Republicans said they would vote for Trump in a 2024 GOP primary.
So, will the ‘Trump Train’ triumph again? The answer is far from clear-cut, but it may hinge on a litany of unpredictable factors. Trump’s larger-than-life persona, his sway over a significant demographic, and his dominance over the GOP undeniably paint a potential comeback scenario. However, his legal troubles, age and apparent decline in popularity are powerful determinants that could transform this scenario into mere fantasy. Thus, we find ourselves in a precarious position of suspense, waiting to see whether the phrase ‘once bitten, twice shy’ will bear any influence on the American electorate. Skepticism abounds, but only time can reveal the ultimate decider.
